13 Months And Counting...

October 5, 2009
Jay Timmons, NAM

The next mid-term elections are light years away in the minds of most average voters. Instead, many significant policy issues currently on the congressional agenda are at the forefront in their minds, as evidenced by the strong outpouring of public sentiment at town hall meetings and rallies across the country during the months of August and September.

Republicans started off the year in a state of disarray following defeat in 2008 and changes in party leadership. At this point, however, the Democrats have their share of challenges, too. On a variety of issues, from health care to the effectiveness of stimulus policy, President Obama and congressional leaders are feeling the heat. Voters are troubled by the economy overall, and last Friday’s unemployment numbers only add to the burden on the party in power.

Two months after his inauguration, President Obama enjoyed approval ratings of 65 percent. Today, those ratings are down to 53 percent, according to a Gallup survey conducted September 30–October 2. When we look at the current mood of the voters, there is a high degree of dissatisfaction with the way things are going in this country. A typical political survey will ask whether respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction or is on the wrong track. In the latest Rasmussen survey of likely voters conducted September 27–29, 63 percent said the country is on the wrong track compared with 33 percent who think we are headed in the right direction.

When trying to forecast what may happen in the 2010 elections, Republicans can take solace in the fact that the only place to go is up. If nothing else, they have history on their side – trends show that the party of the President typically loses seats in the mid-term elections. And though it is impossible at this juncture to say with any certainty how these elections will end up, we can look to some indicators now to get a sense for where things are headed in the 2010 elections, even if we know there will be twists and turns along the way.

One interesting indicator to consider is the national generic congressional ballot test, where pollsters ask respondents which party they plan to vote for in the next election (see the graphic above). It should be no surprise that Democrats have led in this generic ballot for some time, especially prior to the elections of 2006 when they retook the majority in Congress and 2008 when they strongly solidified their numbers in both the House and the Senate. But in recent months, Republicans have come out ahead in a few surveys, giving a glimmer of hope to the beleaguered GOP. In a late August/early September survey, Rasmussen showed Republicans leading by seven points, 44 percent to 37 percent. While most surveys still show Democrats leading, they are on average only three to four points ahead of Republicans.

At this point in the election cycle, it looks like Republicans at least have a fighting chance of improving their standing, although it seems unlikely they can achieve the 40-seat gain needed to retake the majority. Some political observers estimate Republicans will at least make modest gains of 10–15 seats in the House of Representatives next year, with some leaving the door open for the possibility of a more significant increase in House seats.

The 2010 election outcomes will depend in large part on these trends in voter sentiment, the economic picture next year and the quality of the candidates recruited by both parties. Predictions are difficult to make but it is never too early to start paying attention to the candidates and their records.