MANUFACTURING'S ROLE IN RECESSION TO BE DISCUSSED
The Salt Lake Tribune -- Updated: 01/08/2010
The "Role of Manufacturers in the Recession Recovery" will be the subject of the keynote address at the Utah Manufacturers Association's annual membership luncheon Feb. 1 at Little America Hotel in Salt Lake City.
Raymond Monroe, executive vice president of the Steel Founders' Society of America, will speak at the luncheon, which runs from 12:15 p.m. to 1:45 p.m. Cost is $35 per person, $250 for a table of eight.
The luncheon provides an opportunity for Utah manufacturers, whose industry has sustained substantial layoffs this recession, to meet with legislators.
Registration may be arranged by contacting Teresa Thomas at 801-363-3885 or by filling out a form on the association's Web site, www.umaweb.org.
Mike Gorrell
Monday Economic Report
Last week's reports were, on balance, positive. Of the 12 major economic indicators, seven improved and five declined (To see all of last week's indicators, see the Latest Economic Reports section below.) Multiple manufacturing indicators showed that industrial activity continued to recover in the fourth quarter of last year, although an upturn in activity has yet to reach many industries within manufacturing.
There was positive news on the consumer front in December, with both chain store and vehicle sales rising in the final month of the year. However, with both of these indicators lower in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, overall consumer activity in the final three months of the year — which will be reported by the Commerce Department in the fourth quarter GDP report at the end of this month — will likely show anemic consumer activity.
Though negative, the employment situation is gradually improving (see chart above). After a revised November estimate, which showed an actual increase in jobs, payroll employment fell in December by 85,000 and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 10 percent. The one area with recent job increases is temporary employment, which increased for a fifth consecutive month in December. Since an increase in temporary employment is typically a precursor to an increase in permanent employment, this is a good sign that conditions will continue to improve in the first quarter of 2010.
Dave Huether
Chief Economist
National Association of Manufacturers
GET YOUR OSHA LOG POSTED!
January 11, 2010 – Employers Council
Each year, from February 1st until April 30th, employers with 10 or more employees must post OSHA Form 300A. The form must be posted in a conspicuous location to alert employees to injuries and illnesses that occurred in the workplace the prior year.
Obtain the form and instruction package from the OSHA Website at www.osha.gov/recordkeeping/RKforms.html.
January 11, 2010
The Labor Department reported last Friday that the US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 10 percent in December after a loss of 85,000 jobs. The news is a disappointment following a decline in unemployment in November. Insiders say the White House is facing the task of moving job creation back to the top of their already full agenda.
Mexico’s Declining Oil Production Will Impact the United States
In 2008, the United States imported more than 10 percent of its oil from Mexico – over 1.3 million barrels per day (Mb/d).*
In 2005, Mexico produced 3.7 Mb/d of oil and sold 1.7 Mb/d to the United States. By 2020, however, Mexican production will only be about 1.8 Mb/d and one of our most stable and secure sources of oil supply will be gone. Both the United States and Mexico will have to adjust to the harsh geological reality of depletion. Peak oil is staring us in the face.
Cantarell, not so long ago the world's second-largest oilfield, has traditionally accounted for 60 percent of Mexican production. But Cantarell is in terminal decline and Mexico's future is deteriorating before our eyes -- revenues from oil sales account for 40 percent of Mexico's federal budget.
The potential confrontation between growing demand and declining supply will impact not only Mexico but the United States as well. The National Academy of Sciences recently warned:
"The security and sustainability of our nation’s energy system have been perennial concerns since WWII... especially our growing dependence on imported petroleum." [1]
There is little question that with the demise of Mexico as a key supplier, America’s fragile oil supply chain will become even more tenuous.
North Sea production is in established decline and Canada's potential over the next decade is increasingly limited given the cancellation of so many tar sands facilities because of the economy. Our own deepwater production is very expensive (e.g. Jack Field). Brazil is the only bright spot in our hemisphere and costs are rising there too. We will have to go farther afield for supply and it will be at increased risk and intense competition from China and other nations. Our oil situation has continued to deteriorate while camouflaged by the recession and the decline of our most stable sources of supply is worrisome indeed.
There is little hope that Mexico can have a resurgence in oil production. [2] Two other oil regions hold 70% of Mexico's non-Cantarell reserves and are in decline as well.
Ku-Maloob-Zaap field will peak in 2011
Chicontepec basin will peak in 2016
References:
* Archived data taken from http://www.eia.doe.gov/[1] National Academy of Sciences, America’s Energy Future, 2009[2] Pipeline and Gas Journal, August, 2008
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