Monday, August 29, 2011

August 29, 2011





August 29, 2011

As if anyone needed confirmation, a number of last week's economic reports highlighted the weakened state of the U.S. economy, with several indicating downgrades in expected growth moving forward. Real GDP grew only 1 percent in the second quarter of this year – down from an earlier estimate of 1.3 percent – and just 1.5 percent for the past year. A number of economists' forecasts for the remainder of 2011 and 2012 reflect weaker growth in output and employment than was predicted earlier in the year.

Ben Bernanke, in addressing a Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., spoke about the slow pace of economic recovery, and he urged policymakers to address some of the more important long-term challenges facing the nation, including addressing our large budget deficits and debt, passing "proactive" housing policies, improving our educational and health care systems, and advancing fiscal policy solutions that promote growth. On this latter point, he said:

“To the fullest extent possible, our nation’s tax and spending policies should increase incentives to work and save, encourage investments in the skills of our workforce, stimulate private capital formation, promote research and development, and provide necessary public infrastructure. We cannot expect our economy to grow its way out of our fiscal imbalances, but a more productive economy will ease the tradeoffs we face.”

Much of the focus in policy circles this fall will be on deficit reduction, but President Obama has said that he will also seek ways to generate more jobs. Manufacturers are also advocating for policies that promote growth. The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) released its policy survey at the beginning of last week, which mostly focused on the need for deficit reduction, yet 37 percent of the business economists who were surveyed felt that there was a need for some form of stimulus to jumpstart economic growth. It will be interesting to watch how policymakers thread the needle of new initiatives that encourage growth while also enacting tough new measures to curtail spending. The announcement by the Congressional Budget Office about a $1.3 trillion deficit for fiscal 2011 will not help those advocating new stimulus measures.

Within manufacturing, regional Federal Reserve Bank surveys continue to show weaknesses with new orders, production and employment. The Kansas City Fed's survey was one of the few recent indicators to show positive, growth, albeit barely, as most of the others have reflected a contracting sector. Interestingly, the Census Bureau released numbers on durable goods orders for July that were strongly positive, mostly from a rebound in automobile and airplane sales. It seems that official government statistics continue to digress from regional surveys, much like they did the previous week with a good industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board.

This week, we will gain further insights into manufacturing production, with regional surveys from Texas and Chicago and a national perspective from the Institute for Supply Management. In addition, we will learn more about consumer sentiment on Tuesday, productivity gains on Thursday, and the employment situation on Friday.

Chad Moutray
Chief Economist
National Association of Manufacturers



CONSUMER SPENDING REBOUNDS IN JULY
Today in Manufacturing
Consumers rebounded to boost spending by the most in five months; increase is likely to ease fears the U.S. economy is on the verge of another recession ... continue

THAT CO2 WARMING THE WORLD: LOCK IT IN A ROCK
Today in Manufacturing
Chemically disposing of CO2 is a kind of 21st-century alchemy that researchers and governments have hoped for to slow or halt climate change ... continue

OBAMA TO PICK KRUEGER FOR ECONOMIC POST
Today in Manufacturing
President has chosen labor economist Alan Krueger for a top administration post as White House scrambles for solutions to boost a fragile economy ... continue

THE SIX PITFALLS OF GROWTH
Today in Manufacturing
It may seem counterintuitive, but it is possible for companies to grow themselves out of business. If growth isn't well managed, it is, quite simply, a risk ... continue

ARE CORPORATE WELLNESS PROGRAMS REALLY WORTH IT?
Today in Manufacturing
The way many companies approach wellness has unfortunately become a game of "Whack-a-Mole." ... continue

ATK AEROSPACE OPENS 800-WORKER UTAH PLANT
Today in Manufacturing
The company says the 600,000 square-foot facility will produce aircraft composite structures and already has more than $1 billion in contracts to fulfill ... continue

ECONOMY GREW AT MEAGER 1 PERCENT THIS SPRING
Today in Manufacturing
Fewer exports and weaker growth in business stockpiles led the Commerce Department to lower its estimate for the April-June quarter from 1.3 percent growth ... continue

HOW DO YOUR BENEFITS SHAPE UP?
Today in Manufacturing
With the troubled economy, manufacturing workers are going to be increasingly critical of their retirement benefits. Does your company's stack up? ... continue

THE LEAST PROFITABLE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
Today in Manufacturing
If you're investing in American manufacturing, there are many success stories, but just as many sectors you definitely want to stay away from ... continue

MANUFACTURING TO GROW 4.1% IN 2011, 3.2% IN 2012
Quick Manufacturing News
However GDP falls to 1.6% in 2001 and 2.1% in 2011 says Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI. Click to continue

OBAMA PLANS $10B IN REGULATORY CUTS; REPUBLICANS WANT MORE RULES OVERTURNED
UAE Weekly Energy Brief - By Kathleen Hart
The Obama administration announced final regulatory reform plans Aug. 23 that are expected to save about $10 billion for businesses in paperwork over the next five years, an effort that one Republican senator dubbed a "drop in the bucket."

"Over the next five years, the monetized savings from just a fraction of the reforms announced today are likely to exceed $10 billion. Perhaps more important, today's plans explicitly recognize that the regulatory lookback is not a one-time endeavor," Cass Sunstein, administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the White House Office of Management and Budget, said in an Aug. 23 White House blog.

"Agencies will continue to revisit existing rules, asking whether they should be updated, streamlined, or repealed. And they will do so in close consultation with the public. Ideas are welcome at any time," Sunstein wrote. Billions of dollars are expected to be saved from the removal of regulations in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the U.S. Department of Labor, Sunstein noted.

At the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, regulatory reviews are anticipated to save up to $1.5 billion over the next five years, according to the agency's current plan, which includes 35 priority initiatives. Some of these "burden-reducing, cost-saving reforms" are in process, while others are in the earliest stages or have been completed, the EPA plan said.

President Barack Obama's administration described the potential economic savings from EPA regulatory reviews as "significant." For example, a recent final rule exempting milk producers from regulations designed to protect against oil spills will save $145 million to $148 million annually. A recently proposed rule would eliminate redundant air pollution control requirements now imposed on gas stations for a cost savings of $87 million a year. Other reforms, including efforts to streamline requirements and move to electronic reporting, could save additional money, the administration said.

Obama issued an executive order Jan. 18 calling for a full review of all federal regulations to make sure they are not stifling economic growth and American competitiveness.

"From child labor laws to the Clean Air Act to our most recent strictures against hidden fees and penalties by credit card companies, we have, from time to time, embraced common sense rules of the road that strengthen our country without unduly interfering with the pursuit of progress and the growth of our economy," the president wrote Jan. 18 in an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal. "Sometimes, those rules have gotten out of balance, placing unreasonable burdens on business — burdens that have stifled innovation and have had a chilling effect on growth and jobs."

Barrasso: Obama plan for publicity, not growth

Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., an advocate of eliminating certain EPA regulations, was quick to counter that Obama's five-year savings plan is equal to just one month of the administration's new regulations.

"The White House proved again that it's not serious about cutting red tape that continues to destroy American jobs. The administration just unveiled a plan for publicity — not a plan for growth," Barrasso said in an Aug. 23 statement. "Cutting $10 billion in regulatory costs over five years is a drop in the bucket. In July alone, the administration proposed over $9.5 billion in new regulatory costs."

Barrasso pointed to two EPA regulations that were not considered by the White House review but which he said would destroy jobs. The agency's proposed ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards will cost an estimated $1 trillion, according to the senator. The EPA's boiler MACT standards will cost about $11 billion in compliance, while the utility MACT standards will cost about $17.8 billion a year, he said.

Barrasso charged that since Obama issued his executive order on regulations in January, the White House has introduced 2,305 final rules and 1,770 proposed rules.

Rep. Eric Cantor, R-Va., called the outcome of the administration's regulatory review "underwhelming. Every day, business people and job creators cope with burdensome regulations that have a negative impact on both jobs and our economy, and again the president seems reluctant to do everything in his power to help them," Cantor said in an Aug. 23 news release.
"Speeches and editorials are not enough to help real job creators in America — small business owners — create middle-class jobs. Action is needed — which is why we must remove onerous federal regulations that are redundant, harmful to small businesses, and impede private sector investment and job creation."

Cantor said the House of Representatives plans to "overturn several of EPA's proposed regulations that inhibit jobs in areas as varied as cement and farm dust."

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce called the administration's review a "worthy effort that falls short" in an Aug. 23 blog on its website. "The administration's changes fall into the categories of eliminating duplicative regulations, the better use of electronic government (E-Gov), and the harmonization of classifications between the U.S. and other nations of standardized terms," the group said.

ESTABLISHING A RETURN-TO-WORK PROGRAM
By Greg Summerhays – Workers Compensation Fund
A return-to-work program is a practical approach to returning injured employees to a safe and productive work environment. Although injured employees may be unable to perform their regular jobs, they can often do alternative, productive work while recovering fully from injuries.

A return-to-work program can reduce the cost of lost time due to injuries and can keep an injured employee contributing to your organization. Injured employees who stay at work also receive support from co-workers and feel productive.

Companies of any size can implement and benefit from an effective return-to-work program. Here are some tips for creating a successful program:

Establish a few return-to-work jobs before they are needed.

Always consider job modification before injured employees have returned to their former job.
Allow recovering workers to ease into the full work routine.

Be positive and flexible. Emphasize what the employee can do.

Maintain a positive attitude toward the injured employee.

Have employees identify alternative productive work.

Return-to-work programs often require modifying tasks or work sites to accommodate injured employees. These unexpected costs are a good investment for two reasons. First, they keep injured employees productive during recovery. Second, they can keep a company from losing experienced employees.

Communication should be a vital component of your return-to-work program. There should be solid communication between you, your injured employee and health care providers about the employee's recovery. Supervisors should demonstrate their concern by keeping in touch with an injured employee. The goal is to get an injured employee back to work and feeling positive about their recovery. It's important to keep in mind that recovery periods vary; returning an injured employee too soon might undermine their recovery.

Design alternative work to fit recovering workers' circumstances. Modify an existing job, reduce the hours of an existing job, or combine tasks from several jobs. Alternative work can be full- or part-time, but should only last until the injured worker is released to the original job.

A properly executed return-to-work program can reduce the work days lost to injuries, increase employee morale and save money. It can help you manage your experience modification factor (e-mod) and, in turn, your workers' compensation premium.

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